→ Pragmatic Capitalism: Рынок США не такой выдающийся, как нам говорят

The US Stock Market is Not as Exceptional as We’ve Been Told https://www.pragcap.com/the-us-stock-market-is-not-as-exceptional-as-weve-been-…

В Pragmatic Capitalism сегодня интересный выпуск про Global Stock Market Capitalization:

• В мире есть 82 биржи с общей капитализацией $122 триллиона.
• Из них, с учетом фри-флоата и разных ограничений только $67 являются investable (в частности, именно столько покрывают широкие индексы FTSE/MSCI).
• США занимают 57% мировой investable капитализации, но всего 43% из общей капитализации.
• Если брать всю капитализацию, то доля Emerging Markets должна быть раза в два выше.

All of this has huge implications for asset management and the way we build global stock portfolios. If we use one methodology we’re way overweight USA while the other results in an underweight. Additionally, if you use the full cap methodology you have to accept that your non-US full cap exposure doesn’t exactly correlate to the actual foreign slice (because so much of it is not investable). But the alternative is to have an overweight US position that doesn’t accurately reflect the actual issuance of global equities which leaves you potentially overexposed to home bias and/or specific country risk. What’s the right answer? I am not really sure to be honest, but being way overweight US stocks just because of a subjective definition leaves me a little uncomfortable.

Personally, I am more inclined to use the actual full cap instead of the free float because those instruments actually exist even if they’re not “investable”. But I understand the alternative argument as well.